EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Closing the book on the month of June witnessed EUR/USD—in the shape of a near-full-bodied bearish candle—touch gloves with familiar support at $1.1857-1.1352 and erase 3.0 percent. A bullish revival from the aforesaid support shines the technical spotlight on 2021 peaks at $1.2349; additional enthusiasm may welcome ascending resistance (prior support [$1.1641]).

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price breached major trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the daily scale reveals the unit left the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1997 unchallenged in late June and shook hands with Quasimodo support at $1.1836 on Friday. Candlestick enthusiasts will note the test established what’s known as a hammer pattern (often viewed as a bullish signal particularly off support).

Failure to build off current support shifts attention to Quasimodo support at $1.1688.

Underpinning a potential advance from $1.1836 this week, the RSI pencilled in bullish divergence, with the indicator’s value venturing out of oversold space. This implies that despite price registering fresh lows, downside momentum has slowed and cautions that buyers could make an entrance.

As for trend, the currency pair has exhibited a consolidation phase since 2021, following healthy gains in 2020.

H4 timeframe:

Drawn from early April, $1.1794-1.1822 demand arrived on Friday, an area located just north of daily Quasimodo support plotted at $1.1836.

Occupying higher space is resistance at $1.1937, a level that withstood numerous upside attempts between the 22nd and 25th June. Notably, clouding the level is supply at $1.2006-1.1983—sharing space with resistance at $1.1990. What’s also technically interesting is the supply forms a decision point, a decision to rupture the $1.1990 support base, or the 5th May low at $1.1986.

H1 timeframe:

Missing $1.18 by a whisker, buyers strengthened their grip Friday, gulping resistance at $1.1848 and shaping modest demand at $1.1838-1.1850. The 100-period simple moving average is plotted close by at $1.1876, with a break north unmasking demand-turned supply at $1.1895-1.1911, joined by a 61.8% Fib retracement at $1.1910 and the $1.19 round number.

Friday’s bullish spirit has the RSI value within touching distance of overbought territory, an area also housing resistance at 78.97 (active since the beginning of this year).

Observed levels:

Long term:

Acknowledging monthly flow trades at support from $1.1857-1.1352, together with the monthly trendline resistance, extended from the high $1.6038, giving way mid-2020, buyers could make a show in the summer months.

On top of this, the daily chart shows price retesting Quasimodo support from $1.1836, formed by way of a hammer candlestick pattern. Consequently, this week may knock on the door of the 200-day simple moving average around $1.1997.

Short term:

In conjunction with higher timeframes pointing north, H4 action extending recovery gains from demand at $1.1794-1.1822 (aligns closely with daily Quasimodo support at $1.1836) shifts attention to H4 resistance at $1.1937. Before reaching this far north, H1 demand-turned supply at $1.1895-1.1911 is on the radar. Note that above here, H1 Quasimodo resistance is visible at $1.1956, arranged a touch above $1.1937 on the H4.